Nuklir, Ukraina, Iran: Dunia Sedang Kehilangan Remnya
Fyodor Lukyanov, Leon Hadar, dan Trita Parsi—menganalisis krisis tatanan global yang ditandai meningkatnya ketegangan di berbagai kawasan seperti Taiwan, Selat Hormuz, Ukraina, dan Timur Tengah, serta sinyal nuklir dari Moskow yang semakin terbuka. Mereka berpendapat bahwa dunia mungkin belum di ambang Perang Dunia III, tetapi mekanisme penahan kekuatan-kekuatan besar—terutama konsep mutual assured destruction atau kehancuran bersama yang terjamin melalui senjata nuklir—sedang mengalami tekanan yang semakin berat. Parsi khususnya menyoroti inkonsistensi kebijakan nuklir AS yang bersedia memberikan teknologi pengayaan uranium kepada Arab Saudi dengan pengawasan lebih longgar dibandingkan Iran.
Poin-Poin Utama
- Drone activities crossing borders and long-range missiles blurring lines between local conflicts and major power involvement reported.
- Warships maneuvering in strategic waters around Taiwan, Strait of Hormuz, Ukraine, and the Middle East.
- Three international relations thinkers published analyses almost simultaneously in early September 2026.
- Fyodor Lukyanov serves as Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs and Director of Research at Valdai International Discussion Club.
- Leon Hadar is an international political analyst writing for Asia Times.
- Trita Parsi is a founder and Executive Vice President of Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
- Lukyanov analyzes nuclear deterrence through the lens of psychology of restraint.
- Hadar warns against alarmism treating every regional conflict as a path to World War III.
- Parsi critiques inconsistency in US nuclear policy regarding Saudi Arabia compared to Iran.
- Nuclear weapons paradoxically function as tools to prevent the largest wars despite being created as instruments of war.
- During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow understood direct confrontation would result in mutual destruction.
- The concept of mutual assured destruction made nuclear-armed states more cautious about direct confrontation.
- US considering nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia potentially granted uranium enrichment technology with reportedly looser oversight than conditions rejected for Iran.
- Mechanisms keeping major powers from taking excessive geopolitical steps are experiencing increasing pressure.
Hak cipta dan publikasi utuh dimiliki oleh Republika.